Sports betting books like Fandeul and DraftKings love when you bet NBA parlays. They are the most lucrative type of bet for them. They are hard to win and push bettors to take undue risks. The "house" builds a significant edge in parlays, making it difficult to turn a profit over time. Many apps will even construct a parlay for you, highlighting a specific team or players. Parlays remain the most popular and fun way to bet on the NBA despite this. The upside of winning a parlay is exciting and potentially lucrative.
However, you can win, too. The sensible-stacking parlay approach helps you avoid the common pitfalls of parlay betting and highlights advantages to improve your chances.Â
Tip #1 - Select NBA parlay props aligned to a player's role
Who takes the last shot in the NBA game? It's an easy answer: The star player. Like a coach in the real NBA, weigh the parlay towards the star players. Stars have higher usage and more opportunities to impact the game. For example, despite both in facilitator roles, I would prefer to be more aggressive with Lebron James than D'Angelo Russell. Russell, averaging 6.3 assists a game, and using the closest betting benchmark (6 assists), only hit around 56% of the time. Lebron James averages 8.3 assists a game and hits his nearest benchmark (8 assists) 86% of the time. That's a huge difference against similar benchmarks. The star player will nearly always get more opportunities to be consistent.Â
Tip #2 - Put "pressure" on your parlays with probability
The NBA can be a wild and unpredictable game, but SSP's approach cuts through the noise to identify the routine standard stats each night. This is how we stay competitive each night despite game-to-game volatility. For instance, Jayson Tatum averaged nearly 27 points in 2023-2024 but only reached 25 points a game around 65% of the time. Despite the lofty average, you create 'pressure' by moving the parlay benchmark to 20 points. Tatum is going to hit that nearly 85% of the time.Â
Fun Fact:Â Out of points, rebounds, assists, and three-pointers, threes have the most variance game-to-game.Â
Tip #3 - Don't chase the odds; chase the win
Always chase the win. Modern technology shapes our decision-making, and apps like Fanduel and DraftKings will shape your selections. For example, chasing Kelly Olynyk at 10 points, two assists, and four rebounds is tempting. The payout skyrockets. However, your probability plummets. Relying on a role player to hit benchmarks might compound your winnings, but you'll never see them. Instead, isolate Olynyks' impact by reviewing the games where his role was reduced and use that as your benchmark. You will find that two assists or four rebounds might be the better play.Â
Tip #4 - Track your performance
The only way to learn is to track your performance over time. The NBA is a dynamic league, and adjustments will be necessary. The best way to fine-tune your model is to record everything and continually assess your decisions.Â
Tip #5 - Game context matters
If you watch the NBA routinely, you will notice the ebbs and flows of the season. Team dynamics, chemistry, confidence, home crowd, record, and motivations all come into play when picking the best games for your parlay. Assess the game context each night and find the most competitive (overtime, anyone?) and the highest-scoring games.Â
The Sensible-Stacking Parlay System
Parlays are fun but can be challenging to win routinely without a system. The Sensible-Stacking Parlay system does all the above for you each day. Click here to join the community and discover the most lucrative and enjoyable way to watch the NBA.Â
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